The Z's future

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Well, at present there isn't a snowball's chance in hell for domestic oil. So there's really no reason to think we'll be supplying our own oil anytime soon.

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

Rui Z · 11-30-2011, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

But you are assuming no advances in technology or reduction in electric vehicle price or gasoline price increases.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

That may be true for today, but the more they sell and develop, the cheaper it will be to produce them. Eventually the manufacturing cost will be enough to make them comparable to gasoline powered cars.

Look at the PS3 for example. When it came out, it was $600. A lot of people said they weren't interested due to the high price tag. After a couple years of making them Sony was able to reduce the manufacturing cost and offer them at a lower price to the consumer. This boosted sales causing the cycle to repeat and Sony lowered the price again once they made it even cheaper to manufacture them. 5 years later, PS3's cost what like $150? That's 25% of what they cost when they came out just 5 years ago.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rui Z

But you are assuming no advances in technology or reduction in electric vehicle price or gasoline price increases.

Nope. Technology advances every day. Everyone knows that...so this is a given IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by b1adesofcha0s

That may be true for today, but the more they sell and develop, the cheaper it will be to produce them. Eventually the manufacturing cost will be enough to make them comparable to gasoline powered cars.

Look at the PS3 for example. When it came out, it was $600. A lot of people said they weren't interested due to the high price tag. After a couple years of making them Sony was able to reduce the manufacturing cost and offer them at a lower price to the consumer. This boosted sales causing the cycle to repeat and Sony lowered the price again once they made it even cheaper to manufacture them. 5 years later, PS3's cost what like $150? That's 25% of what they cost when they came out just 5 years ago.

This is different because the PS3 had big demand. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, do not.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

This is different because the PS3 had big demand. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, do not.

I realize it's different, but it's still a little similar. The demand for EVs is low because of cost. If the cost goes down, the demand will go up. Just look at what happened with hybrid cars. When the cost came down, more and more people wanted to buy hybrids. There are still some technological limitations with EVs, the major one being range, but once those are taken care of the demand will be there. I think it's safe to assume that the demand for EVs will be comparable to those of hybrids today, once they become more affordable.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b1adesofcha0s

I realize it's different, but it's still a little similar. The demand for EVs is low because of cost. If the cost goes down, the demand will go up. Just look at what happened with hybrid cars. When the cost came down, more and more people wanted to buy hybrids. There are still some technological limitations with EVs, the major one being range, but once those are taken care of the demand will be there. I think it's safe to assume that the demand for EVs will be comparable to those of hybrids today, once they become more affordable.

That's a fair point but it should be noted that manufacturing hybrids meant big tax breaks for Acme company. If the government wasn't subsidizing them, the consumer costs would still be very high and the demand would still be very low. Given that the federal government is broke and it needs to cut spending, subsidies like this one should be on the chopping block. The market would then truly dictate the progress of such vehicles, EV's included. However, if the fed doesn't cut it, then you have a good argument in favor of EV's.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

That's a fair point but it should be noted that manufacturing hybrids meant big tax breaks for Acme company. If the government wasn't subsidizing them, the consumer costs would still be very high and the demand would still be very low. Given that the federal government is broke and it needs to cut spending, subsidies like this one should be on the chopping block. The market would then truly dictate the progress of such vehicles, EV's included. However, if the fed doesn't cut it, then you have a good argument in favor of EV's.

That's true. If the government subsidies are gone, it will put more pressure on manufacturers to lower their cost/sale price to get those cars to sell.

m4a1mustang · 12-01-2011, 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

If you look at the political environment today domestic oil independence faces HUGE opposition. We can barely even drill offshore let alone tap into our land based oil stores.

There would have to be a huge political shift for us to get to the point where we could be self-sufficient with our own oil.

I'm not saying I'm opposed to it at all. I support it, in fact. I just don't think we can get there given our political climate.

dAvenue · 12-01-2011, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

If you look at the political environment today domestic oil independence faces HUGE opposition. We can barely even drill offshore let alone tap into our land based oil stores.

There would have to be a huge political shift for us to get to the point where we could be self-sufficient with our own oil.

I'm not saying I'm opposed to it at all. I support it, in fact. I just don't think we can get there given our political climate.

I'm picking up what you're laying down.

We can thank our current president for the moratorium on offshore drilling. He bent over

for the "green" special interest groups, who I presume is the huge influence being referenced. The major political shift can certainly happen in the near future, though; especially, after the train wreck currently in power is removed from office. The momentum is already there. It just needs to follow through.

I agree with whoever said this earlier that a political section would be a good idea. I'd be all over that like white on rice.

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