Tokyo Olympics

Rusty

There is already reports coming out of Wuhan of a 2nd wave starting. The Spanish flu lasted a few years. It had a couple of waves to it.

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浪人 - 殺し屋
"The Difficult Anytime, The Impossible By Appointment Only"
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vtec to vvel

What really irks me is that we (as a society and world) can send people/machines to the moon and beyond, but we can't figure out how to cure diseases

Rusty

Mother nature is hard to figure out.

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浪人 - 殺し屋
"The Difficult Anytime, The Impossible By Appointment Only"
http://www.the370z.com/members-370z-...o-journal.html

ZCanadian

Definitely not eradicated. But brought to a point where it can be better controlled.

There might be waves of virus, followed by further periods of isolation to knock it back until a cure or vaccine can be made widely available. But with most now aware of the potential return and taking precautions to limit spread (social distancing, hygene)

Spanish Flu was bad in April and May 1918 and then slowed significantly in the summer only to re-emerge in the fall (October 1918 was the deadliest month).

There is no guarantee that Covid-19 will respond similarly, but it's a useful guide.

Some quick math:
It's said that without limiting social contact, an infected individual will go on to infect on average 3 more people.

Running that scenario out 6 generations of contact, that one person is responsible for making 1,092 others sick.

Social distancing and limiting interactions is supposed to cut the infection rate in half - each person infects only 1.5 others.

After 6 iterations of that, only 31 people have caught the virus.

Major difference!

Rusty

The numbers i saw was 1 to 14 to start with. Right now, the numbers are doubling every 3.5 days. 100,000 to 200,000, to 400,000, to 800,000. Predicted 1 million by end of the month world wide.

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浪人 - 殺し屋
"The Difficult Anytime, The Impossible By Appointment Only"
http://www.the370z.com/members-370z-...o-journal.html

ZCanadian

Keep in mind that numbers are increasing more quickly partly because there have finally been intensive efforts to start to identify cases by means of assessment and tests. Not necessarily that the spread is that quick. We’re still behind the total, but have we now identified 10% of the actual number of cases, 20%, or 40%?

JARblue

I am quite certain you meant to say 1918 and not 2018

Excellent points. Minimizing exponential exposure is not only critical, but actually possible.

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ZCanadian

OOPS.

And yes, as I'm sure you've read elsewhere....

THIS IS THE ONLY TIME IN HISTORY THAT MANKIND HAS EVER BEEN CALLED UPON TO SAVE CIVILIZATION BY STAYING AT HOME SITTING ON THE COUCH. LET'S NOT SCREW THIS UP!