KBB Value dropping drasticly

Red__Zed

Your model fails to account for the vastly different msrp schemes. Ford runs constant rebates that are huge, BMW consistently sells for msrp, especially on flagships.

Rockhound

Fair enough; this is about as simplistic a comparison as you can perform. It assumes you paid full MSRP across the board, which is how I chose to normalize my calcs. This makes the Germans on this list probably the most accurate calcs, if they tend to sell closer to MSRP.

Of this list, the Mustang likely has the most wiggle room in MSRP vs actual purchase value. So if I had average transaction prices instead of MSRP, the residuals would only trend higher, including the Z.

This still indicates, to me, that the 370Z has decent value retention when compared to other vehicles as opposed to the sentiment in this thread.

MMC Racing

In late 08, I had a local BMW dealer talked down $5000 on a 2009 M3 coupe.

One could also bring up that BMW's get leased at a much higher rate than the other cars in the list..

This wasn't a 6 month, $300,000 study on car depreciation differences, it was a quick comparison based off of like categories. His model didn't fail at all, the only fail was your comprehension of it.

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SouthArk370Z

I appreciate the effort to put together the numbers. Scientific? No. Helpful ballpark figures? Definitely.

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Red__Zed

So, less than 10% off?

That's like getting 2.8k off a mustang, when in reality you'll get something like 10k off.


Thanks for proving my point.

Rockhound

Isn't arguing that the Mustang has better value retention than my estimate by reasoning that there's $10k on the hood akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face?

If the average Mustang GT transaction price is in the low $20k range, then yes, the 5-year old KBB value above would indicate that it has a strong residual value.

I don't mean this as an affront to the Mustang...it has been expressed here and elsewhere that the Z has depreciated beyond an acceptable level, and my stance is that it hasn't.

Red__Zed

I'm not sure I follow your first paragraph.


How well the Z has held value depends on your perspective of what the car is. It has been weak relative to those expecting it to be a hit car. Your expectations were likely just more reasonable.

Rockhound

Relative to what? That's a very vague statement. ‘Those’ people must be folks who don’t have a good understanding how depreciation applies to a mass-produced vehicle that lacks a strong cult following and forces serious compromises on an increasingly beige-seeking consumer base.

Relative to the German competition in the M3 for example, yes, the Z’s residual is lower in my woefully misinformed example. If we assume that the average transaction price for the 370Z tended to be at a greater discount from MSRP than the M3, which you would likely suggest, then the gap in value retention begins to narrow. If the average transaction price on that mythical 2009 370Z was $28k, that brings the trade value residual up to 61.4% (still assuming the $17.2k trade value) – versus 63.7% residual for the nearly 2x priced M3 (assuming transactions ran close to MSRP for the M3, which you’ve suggested). I guess I just wouldn’t classify over 60% value retention over a five year span as ‘weak’ – regardless of my expectations.

I do get what you’re saying – if someone gets $10k off a $27k Mustang in 2009, and they can trade it for $14.6k, the residual for that individual is an astounding 86%.

It's probably also worth noting that the thought of the Z34 being a ‘hit car’ flew out the window some five years ago. A moderately ‘expensive’ (all relative, of course) Japanese, non-V8, 2-seat coupe launched during a pronounced recession wasn’t ever going to fly off the showroom floor, and it hasn’t. The thought of exclusivity keeping prices up artificially is also rendered moot because the Z isn’t some bespoke, one-off status symbol – even though it may feel that way to many owners. It seems to me that the shock over the Z’s depreciation is based upon wholly unfounded expectations.


My point was this: you’re defending the Mustang’s residual value by arguing that there are huge incentives, and that you can get $10k off a new Mustang. That’s kind of damning with faint praise, if I can use another antiquated cliché to describe it. Cash incentives to move metal can be detrimental on used car values, too – NADA estimates that $1,000 in cash incentive reduces a one-year old used version by $600.

Just as Nissan's recent price-drop on the Z may already be showing a pass-through effect to used Z values.


I work in an inexact science day in and day out. I usually have to normalize against some constant assumption to make meaningful comparisons. Normalizing a chart of one appraisal service’s valuation of cars of the same age with the same mileage against MSRP isn’t the catastrophic blunder you make it out to be, if you approach it with the proper caveats in mind. I mean, I guess it is if you have a different agenda to push. I comprehend that the starting price is important, but as a quick look, I compared against MSRP. Some folks pay MSRP, too - not everyone drives a hard bargain.

I never promoted that table as the gospel for residuals; it just served as a basic comparison tool. You seem very bothered with the Mustang example in particular.


I don't think anyone is suggesting that - I just don't think the data bears out that the Z has experienced horrible depreciation. I think there's some shock in seeing what deprecation looks like when you started near $30k 5 years ago. And for folks who don't intend to sell the vehicle, it is kind of a moot point anyway.

Red__Zed

I think you are imagining a lot of content to my posts that is not there. I'm not "attacking" resale value, nor am I "defending" any car. My point is simply that the depreciation deltas are smaller than your error bars, making it tough to draw a conclusion from the data.

Posting that chart is misleading, the MSRP variance gives on the order of ten percentage points of flex, estimating conservatively. That says nothing of the issues using final production year vs first production year and the like. Those are acceptable items to include, properly qualified of course. You mentioned none of that.

Since you seem to be rustled at the idea of the Mustang doing OK, we will do with the S2000. Take a quick google search to see what 2009 S2000s were selling for--it's very close to what the used ones are selling for...Honda incentivized them very heavily.

All that said, the Z doesn't have terrible residuals for its class of car. I think the performance is surprising for some because other Z cars have had very high residuals, but that in no way makes the Z a "bad" car. A lot of the residual.


Finally, you and others seem to continue to confuse negotiation with mfr incentives. For an easy example, go take a look at pickup trucks. You will literally never pay MSRP. If you went into a GMC dealer for a truck, you'd probably pay 10K less than sticker without negotiating at all. Certain manufacturers utilize this tactic more than others. American companies use it the most--it heavily affects Corvette and Mustang prices on your chart. Lifecycle end incentives affect the S2000. BMW discounts the 335i, but not the M3. It's amazing how the ordering reads almost in line with expected discounts.

luigi90210

what point did he prove? besides that you are being a bigot

you cant compare what you can and cant get taken off a car from the dealer as its on an individual basis

not everyone gets 2k off a mustang, and there are some people who just pay MSRP on a vehicle no questions asked
what you are doing is trying to intorduce a new variable which is inmeasureable without paying some stupid amount of money to have it done


the graph provided was more than enough to give Ballpark figures as far as value retention goes, this is by no means an exact model of it
if you want an exact figure put together, by all means put one together yourself and share it with everyone, or dont, i dont really care, the figure provided earlier is more than enough to give me an idea as to what my car is worth...

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Red__Zed

I already did the numbers, they're floating around in one of these other threads that comes up once a month.

Mfr incentives are separate from negotiation, and several companies track average price paid.

Do you know what the word bigot means?