The Z's future

m4a1mustang · 11-30-2011, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

You won't be saying that when this country can finally become energy independent. When that era comes, gas prices will drop drastically. There are too many factors at play to know for all certainty that combustion engines are doomed.

Well, at present there isn't a snowball's chance in hell for domestic oil. So there's really no reason to think we'll be supplying our own oil anytime soon.

Keep in mind oil is priced in dollars, and the Federal Reserve really likes a weak dollar. So take away the demand situation and you've also got inflationary pressures. Gas is really going to run with the next round of quantitative easing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNKNOWN_370

That goes right back to when I said, you can change all the vehicles out there but the sports car should maintain its tradition as a gas engine. I know the reality will be that my family sedan or hauler will be EV. But now we are talking sports cars. Its a niche market that can remain gasoline for way longer than all other transpportation markets.

Sports cars tend to be at the forefront of technology. I think it's more likely for sports cars to make the jump to EV (or other fuel) at the same time as, if not before, the average family car. I doubt they'd linger if the world was in the process of making the switch to EV just so they could carry on some tradition.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Well, at present there isn't a snowball's chance in hell for domestic oil. So there's really no reason to think we'll be supplying our own oil anytime soon.

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

Rui Z · 11-30-2011, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

But you are assuming no advances in technology or reduction in electric vehicle price or gasoline price increases.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

That may be true for today, but the more they sell and develop, the cheaper it will be to produce them. Eventually the manufacturing cost will be enough to make them comparable to gasoline powered cars.

Look at the PS3 for example. When it came out, it was $600. A lot of people said they weren't interested due to the high price tag. After a couple years of making them Sony was able to reduce the manufacturing cost and offer them at a lower price to the consumer. This boosted sales causing the cycle to repeat and Sony lowered the price again once they made it even cheaper to manufacture them. 5 years later, PS3's cost what like $150? That's 25% of what they cost when they came out just 5 years ago.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rui Z

But you are assuming no advances in technology or reduction in electric vehicle price or gasoline price increases.

Nope. Technology advances every day. Everyone knows that...so this is a given IMO.

Quote:

Originally Posted by b1adesofcha0s

That may be true for today, but the more they sell and develop, the cheaper it will be to produce them. Eventually the manufacturing cost will be enough to make them comparable to gasoline powered cars.

Look at the PS3 for example. When it came out, it was $600. A lot of people said they weren't interested due to the high price tag. After a couple years of making them Sony was able to reduce the manufacturing cost and offer them at a lower price to the consumer. This boosted sales causing the cycle to repeat and Sony lowered the price again once they made it even cheaper to manufacture them. 5 years later, PS3's cost what like $150? That's 25% of what they cost when they came out just 5 years ago.

This is different because the PS3 had big demand. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, do not.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

This is different because the PS3 had big demand. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, do not.

I realize it's different, but it's still a little similar. The demand for EVs is low because of cost. If the cost goes down, the demand will go up. Just look at what happened with hybrid cars. When the cost came down, more and more people wanted to buy hybrids. There are still some technological limitations with EVs, the major one being range, but once those are taken care of the demand will be there. I think it's safe to assume that the demand for EVs will be comparable to those of hybrids today, once they become more affordable.

dAvenue · 11-30-2011, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b1adesofcha0s

I realize it's different, but it's still a little similar. The demand for EVs is low because of cost. If the cost goes down, the demand will go up. Just look at what happened with hybrid cars. When the cost came down, more and more people wanted to buy hybrids. There are still some technological limitations with EVs, the major one being range, but once those are taken care of the demand will be there. I think it's safe to assume that the demand for EVs will be comparable to those of hybrids today, once they become more affordable.

That's a fair point but it should be noted that manufacturing hybrids meant big tax breaks for Acme company. If the government wasn't subsidizing them, the consumer costs would still be very high and the demand would still be very low. Given that the federal government is broke and it needs to cut spending, subsidies like this one should be on the chopping block. The market would then truly dictate the progress of such vehicles, EV's included. However, if the fed doesn't cut it, then you have a good argument in favor of EV's.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

That's a fair point but it should be noted that manufacturing hybrids meant big tax breaks for Acme company. If the government wasn't subsidizing them, the consumer costs would still be very high and the demand would still be very low. Given that the federal government is broke and it needs to cut spending, subsidies like this one should be on the chopping block. The market would then truly dictate the progress of such vehicles, EV's included. However, if the fed doesn't cut it, then you have a good argument in favor of EV's.

That's true. If the government subsidies are gone, it will put more pressure on manufacturers to lower their cost/sale price to get those cars to sell.

m4a1mustang · 12-01-2011, 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dAvenue

Care to explain why there is not a chance in hell for this?

I could say the same thing about EV vehicles. They are more expensive to manufacture, cost more to the consumer, produce dismal sales figures and do not contribute to a company's profit margin. Electric vehicles certainly do not exist to make money. The only reason they exist is to satisfy government regulations that dictate a company's overall carbon emissions score; EV cars lower that score.

Without question, the vast majority of money is made from sale of gasoline vehicles. Based on that alone, I can safely say there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that combustion engines will be obsolete in 30 years. The market for EV is too small and the cost of producing them is too large.

If you look at the political environment today domestic oil independence faces HUGE opposition. We can barely even drill offshore let alone tap into our land based oil stores.

There would have to be a huge political shift for us to get to the point where we could be self-sufficient with our own oil.

I'm not saying I'm opposed to it at all. I support it, in fact. I just don't think we can get there given our political climate.

dAvenue · 12-01-2011, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

If you look at the political environment today domestic oil independence faces HUGE opposition. We can barely even drill offshore let alone tap into our land based oil stores.

There would have to be a huge political shift for us to get to the point where we could be self-sufficient with our own oil.

I'm not saying I'm opposed to it at all. I support it, in fact. I just don't think we can get there given our political climate.

I'm picking up what you're laying down.

We can thank our current president for the moratorium on offshore drilling. He bent over

for the "green" special interest groups, who I presume is the huge influence being referenced. The major political shift can certainly happen in the near future, though; especially, after the train wreck currently in power is removed from office. The momentum is already there. It just needs to follow through.

I agree with whoever said this earlier that a political section would be a good idea. I'd be all over that like white on rice.

b1adesofcha0s · 11-30-2011, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Well, at present there isn't a snowball's chance in hell for domestic oil. So there's really no reason to think we'll be supplying our own oil anytime soon.

Keep in mind oil is priced in dollars, and the Federal Reserve really likes a weak dollar. So take away the demand situation and you've also got inflationary pressures. Gas is really going to run with the next round of quantitative easing.

Sports cars tend to be at the forefront of technology. I think it's more likely for sports cars to make the jump to EV (or other fuel) at the same time as, if not before, the average family car. I doubt they'd linger if the world was in the process of making the switch to EV just so they could carry on some tradition.

It's like the transition from manual to dual clutch transmissions in modern day supercars. All the "enthusiasts" hated the thought of giving up a manual for an auto. If executed the right way, they feel the difference in performance when they drive it and they change their minds about it. Cars like the GT-R and Ferrari 458 are perfect examples of this. Now we're getting DCT's in hot hatches and other small cars as well.

UNKNOWN_370 · 11-30-2011, 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by m4a1mustang

Sports cars tend to be at the forefront of technology. I think it's more likely for sports cars to make the jump to EV (or other fuel) at the same time as, if not before, the average family car. I doubt they'd linger if the world was in the process of making the switch to EV just so they could carry on some tradition.

"Carry on some tradition"?????? Wow, why are you even here with a statement like that? S Its kinda hard to believe you are a true enthusiast of sports cars. I was actually paying attention to what you had to say and respected most of your opinions till you straight dismissed a huge reason why we get on forums everyday. I thought it was the commonality of loving these cars for what they are and also Love of tuning and everything that comes with it. Including our combustion engines. "Some tradition is why we buy Z's and why most buy muscle. I guess to you a sports car just means you are faster than most and that's it huh?

And the forefront of technology isn't so much all that true in the affordable sports car realm. A lot of that tech is hand me down tech from decade old exotics. The Z's SRM is a hand-me-down tech from DRM recalibrated to work on manuals. Vvel is just an update of older tech and the 7at is just dual overdrives. These are things that aren't huge breakthroughs. Its just improving on an old invention. Its not like the Z has the GTR tranny in it with other gadgetry and features. Your beloved mustang still rolling on a skate board suspension isn't screaming high tech at all. So I'm not sure where you get sports cars are at the forefront of technology? At least in the price range we are in.

m4a1mustang · 12-01-2011, 06:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNKNOWN_370

"Carry on some tradition"?????? Wow, why are you even here with a statement like that? S Its kinda hard to believe you are a true enthusiast of sports cars. I was actually paying attention to what you had to say and respected most of your opinions till you straight dismissed a huge reason why we get on forums everyday. I thought it was the commonality of loving these cars for what they are and also Love of tuning and everything that comes with it. Including our combustion engines. "Some tradition is why we buy Z's and why most buy muscle. I guess to you a sports car just means you are faster than most and that's it huh?

And the forefront of technology isn't so much all that true in the affordable sports car realm. A lot of that tech is hand me down tech from decade old exotics. The Z's SRM is a hand-me-down tech from DRM recalibrated to work on manuals. Vvel is just an update of older tech and the 7at is just dual overdrives. These are things that aren't huge breakthroughs. Its just improving on an old invention. Its not like the Z has the GTR tranny in it with other gadgetry and features. Your beloved mustang still rolling on a skate board suspension isn't screaming high tech at all. So I'm not sure where you get sports cars are at the forefront of technology? At least in the price range we are in.

Holy crap!

I didn't dismiss it at all.

You are acting like the community will totally fall apart if we get rid of the internal combustion engine. That's simply not true. We'll all still be here... we'll just be looking at different things.

Suspension stuff will be pretty much unchanged, but on the power side we won't be talking FI or bolt ons but we'll be talking tuning, battery packs, etc...

It doesn't ruin the tradition of sports cars or modding sports cars, it just changes it... Yes, it changes it A LOT, but it doesn't mean it will destroy it.

I'm very much an enthusiast. I'm just open-minded. It's kind of ridiculous for you to imply I'm not simply because I don't share the same opinion that EV or alternative fuels are going to destroy the "tradition" of sports cars.

You are very passionate about what you believe... I'll give you that.

Alchemy · 12-01-2011, 06:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UNKNOWN_370

"Carry on some tradition"?????? Wow, why are you even here with a statement like that? S Its kinda hard to believe you are a true enthusiast of sports cars. I was actually paying attention to what you had to say and respected most of your opinions till you straight dismissed a huge reason why we get on forums everyday. I thought it was the commonality of loving these cars for what they are and also Love of tuning and everything that comes with it. Including our combustion engines. "Some tradition is why we buy Z's and why most buy muscle. I guess to you a sports car just means you are faster than most and that's it huh?

And the forefront of technology isn't so much all that true in the affordable sports car realm. A lot of that tech is hand me down tech from decade old exotics. The Z's SRM is a hand-me-down tech from DRM recalibrated to work on manuals. Vvel is just an update of older tech and the 7at is just dual overdrives. These are things that aren't huge breakthroughs. Its just improving on an old invention. Its not like the Z has the GTR tranny in it with other gadgetry and features. Your beloved mustang still rolling on a skate board suspension isn't screaming high tech at all. So I'm not sure where you get sports cars are at the forefront of technology? At least in the price range we are in.

m4a1mustang · 12-01-2011, 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alchemy

The high tech bits are up front.

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