THE 2009 NCAA Football thread

[SiXK]

This is the thread I have been waiting for.... please excuse the length but i would like to give my thoughts on the favorites as I see them...

My prediction for MNC Champ..... whenever LSU has a veteran team I cannot pick another school, makes my heart hurt. lol. So I will say that IF LSU does not win it I think it will be UF. Those two teams would meet twice if both make it to the SEC Championship game. I feel LSU has the better chance in game 1 (Oct 10 at LSU at night, attn gamblers: LSU already a 10 point home dog. ) but UF would have the better chance in game 2 if they lose game 1.

UF will be the run away pre-season and in-season favorite, as well they should. Any team returning 21 of their 22 top defenders should be ranked #1, and thats before taking into consideration that they return a heisman winner at QB. I am going to try and punch a few holes in the gators outlook, as useless as that exercise may seem to most. bottom line is the gators are loaded this year but a few things jump out at me:

• the defense was very good but benefited from an ultra high scoring offense. I saw teams able to move the ball on the gators but all too often they were so far behind that their offensive plans became desperate. In close games I am not sure this group is as dominant as some other SEC defenses have been in years past.
  
• percy harvin is gone. I read he was like 44% of the receiving and 75% of the rushing offense last year. Someone HAS to provide that production and until someone does its a question mark. Harvin was fast and special. Fast is easier to find than special.
  
• Tebow moving under center? WHY? I have heard his family asked for this, to prepare him for the NFL. And Meyer hired a QB coach mainly for this reason. I believe that to be a misguided goal. I would do what Tebow does best - shotgun, run-pass option. Let the NFL prepare Tebow for the NFL, he will be drafted high no matter what.

USC lost too much defensively IMO to realistically be considered a favorite, but with the relatively weak Pac-10 and the massive amounts of 5-star talent on hand you cannot rule them out. I do doubt Pete Carrolls ability to keep such a young team focused all year. Even his veteran teams have lost some real head scratchers (Stanford??).

Texas & Oklahoma.... Could a big 12 team get back to the Big Game? I am going to say yes, but will qualify that prediction by saying Texas must have some WRs step up, if so, not only do they have a chance, but McCoy will win the heisman IMO (its a political award process). Oklahoma lost 4 of 5 starters on the O-line, and that will present just enough of a problem to keep them out IMO.

The dark horses.....

LSU - I have to be careful here. Obviously my heart lies with LSU and I do believe they will be very good. I will try and justify that so this isn't just a homer post. LSU had two big problems last year - QB and Defense. The defense was a little bit fruit of the poisonous tree, as the QB slipped into a neverending sea of pick 6's (career NCAA record in one year) the overall attitude of the team slipped. It was very evident in the body language of the team, and their play. Jefferson, as Cow said, is poised and composed. He made very good choices for a true freshman QB who had no fall camp last year. This year hes had the spring practices and will have the fall camp, if he stays healthy he should be the game manager LSU needs as the offense is very veteran (SRs LaFell, Scott, Williams, Black, Dickson). LSU just needs a guy to distribute the ball and make the right calls at this spot. The defense will be much improved provided the DL comes through. The back seven will be really good. There is plenty of talent there but last year was a step back. Not only did Miles make a good hire with DC Chavis but Cooper (former DB coach from South Carolina) may be one of the very best in the business. great hire. the schedule - heavy with tough away games - is the Tigers biggest obstacle (besides UF). A reliable place kicker and punter must be found.

Alabama - The combination of 3 new OL plus a new QB proves too much to overcome for a MNC type of season, however incoming recruit Trent Richardson could be a difference-making type of RB. McElroy is the big question mark here and bama goes as far as he can take them. Their defense was real good (most Saban defenses are) but benefitted from the worst SEC offenses in a long time last year. Their defense may take a step back in statistics and rankings this year.

Ole Miss - LOL. HAHAHAHA. HEHEHEHE.

Penn State - don't know much about them, but I am suspect of Big Ten teams after the BCS debacles of Ohio State.

after that I just don't know.... Georgia? its just the kind of year (no hype at all) where they usually do well.

thoughts? rebukes? ....