If ICE cars fade away, that should reduce the cost of gas. Supply/demand?

zz

PHEV is the real bridge tech to tide us over for the next 10-15 years until battery tech advances to the point ice isn’t needed anymore.

Battery tech should get better, ie smalller lighter packaging, runs cooler, holds recharges better without wearing out as fast, faster recharges like ice refueling stops, even better range, etc.

Graphene tech may help with this iiirc and there’ll be advances we don’t even anticipate as well. Ice cars sucked for the first few decades let’s not forget, but we don’t still prefer to ride horses...

Gas prices should stay relatively unimpacted for the near future, esp as long as PHEVs are abundant. After that, it’s not so much a price issue imo, but a where the hell can I get gas since no one sells it anymore issue.

The power grid needs major updating to handle this tho. We’ve got a decade to sink about a trillion into our grid to prepare for this. It’s a really good idea to upgrade it regardless since it’s a national security issue so we’d be killing two birds with one stone so to speak.

See above, I think longer term it means no place to get gas anymore. “Gas stations” will be super fast recharge stations at that point most likely.

I retired from the power generation industry. I can tell you this. IF 10% of the cars on the road now was electric. Our grid could not handle it right now. California would be in even bigger trouble. Their grid is already on shaky ground. They don't have enough generation capacity for the extra load. As they have to buy electric from out of state now. Combine that with the blackouts from the fires. :shakes head:

The power companies have been trying to up grade the grid for years with new power lines. But people not want the power lines close to them. So the power lines are being built.

It needs to happen yesterday, first world countries don’t have rolling blackouts, sh1thole countries do.

If it’s electric vehicles that get the federal and state governments to finally get off their azzes and upgrade the national grid, then good, shoulda been started 20 years ago. :shakes head:

Rural America is going to make it extremely difficult for the US to force electric vehicles on a national level. I'm predicting that we'll have a number of companies and politicians screaming for it wherever they can make money (i.e. California and densely populated regions) and the rural portions of the country will continue to use ICE vehicles for several decades. This will lead to even more discrepancy in the needs and style of living between rural and urban areas. Which should lead to much better political discourse at the federal level :rolleyes:

It seems only anyone in power generation truly understands this. My pops is a lifelong nuclear power guy. I truly believe nuclear is the only feasible macro solution to meet our power needs while minimally impacting the environment.

Rural America and heavy industry is where I feel Hydrogen Fuel Cells have a place.

Right now gas is cheap. Post-COVID, we'll see an increase in demand and an increase in price that will eventually normalize, but gas will not get less expensive with widespread adoption of electric/alternative fuel vehicles. Production volume will decrease while demand seen from rural areas will remain, which at best will result in prices staying the same or slightly increasing. My bet is increasing. When we see electric vehicles take over, gas will become so expensive that it will price people into electric vehicles.

So you're saying I should just start hoarding gas now? I've got a bunch of empty coffee cans that should be good for years of gas storage :tup:

They haven't built or IMO, ever be able to build, LARGE Electric commercial Aircraft. Dino fuel will be around for them for years to come. Unless Greta gets her way. ;)

I'm sure 100 years from now, the "super" battery will exist. Maybe then, large commercial electric planes will be viable. We will be Dino oil ourselves by then.

Interview with Alfonso Albaisa of Nissan on Road&Track. Proto Z talk starts at 10:50. Nice pic of the Proto Z from the rear in the grey color at 18:18. Host tries to get some engine info out of Alfonso but he doesn't bite:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IydY7-PGwdk

As stated by ricerx, eventually gas will just be priced to the point ice vehicles are just priced out of the market bc it’s to $$ to fuel them as well as too hard to even find gas stations.

The $$ and the majority of the population in this country is urban and suburban, not rural. Not enough people and not enough people with $$ to care about rural transportation issues. Sh1t, the republicans bitch about subsidized airports and flights to connect rural areas and the democratics couldn’t give two sh1ts if POVs go away so I think we know how this is going to go.

My hope, and I’m bullish on this, is that battery tech will advance enough to mitigate at least some of this.

Hydrogen fuel cell planes, problem solved. Just need to figure out how to produce hydrogen for the fuel cells on a mass production level without using fossil fuels. That’ll happen eventually.

The BIGGEST issue imo with this inevitable move to electric cars etc, is that it’s happening hand in hand with the autonomous car push. Have any of you noticed that over the last 10 years or so there’s been a concerted push in all subjects, esp driving, that emphasizes how “dangerous” humans are and how we can’t be trusted to make decisions. Sh1t, there’s even sentencing algorithms for court cases now so apparently we may not need judges at some point.

/\ my worry isn’t what tech powers my Jeep or car, my worry is will I still be able to legally drive my fvcking autos myself or will we outlaw our constitutionally unenumerated right to freedom of movement?

If you get a few DUIs, the government will, happily, remind you that driving an automobile is a privilege and not a right...lol. You're free to move about in other forms of transportation though.

You completely missed my point.

Irresponsible actions can and should have consequences, such as driving under the influence.

The issue is that just being a human driver is starting to be considered too big a risk and that is the problem.

Freedom is inherently risky, perceived safety should never come at the expense of freedom. Especially when powerful corporate and political interests benefit at the expense of individual liberty.

:iagree:

Let's not be blind to the fact that the push for autonomous and electric vehicles is not pursuant to greater safety or less environmental impact. This is only about the almighty dollar. Those other arguments are simply mechanisms for convincing consumers the change necessary so corporations can push policy changes. Consumers are already bad enough about letting their freedoms get taken away, so there's not a lot of hope for the long term. My only hope is that the logistics of a full transition to electric and autonomous vehicles is complicated enough that it happens after my lifetime (I think I'm good :tup:).

Well said.

Reminds me of the Plastic Industries push for the use of plastic instead of paper, glass etc.. They convinced everyone of the positives of plastic and it was the plastic industry that invented "recycling".

As we have learned now, MANY plastic are NOT recyclable. Not to mention toxic.

ZZ