2011 370z sales

SeattleLion

The numbers look proportionately right until we get to May 2011. I wonder if the slump in May had to do with low supply due to the earthquake.

If you look at the net change it is

Jan -106
Feb -128
Mar -121
Apr -10
May -370 (hmmm)

So if you normlize Jan-April, sales dropped an average of 91 cars a month. May's sales slipped very badly, about 30% year-over-year. 2010 wasn't a great year either, but not terrible considering the economy. The YTD average sales drop is 147 units a month compared with 2010. May really hurt the averages. But I suspect the real drop is in the 90-cars-a-month range with Japan's problems causing the May slump.

I don't know if Nissan is willing to take another 30% hit in 2012, if that is how they are forecasting. Two things need to happen to make a car maker believe that things will improve tomorrow (well, next year): 1. The economy will improve substantially; more employment, etc. and 2. gas prices will subside to below-$3.50 a gallon. Arguably, gas may need to go below $3.00 a gallon before people take a chance on a high-powered car like the Z.

Since car makers need at least two years lead time for a really new model, did Nissan decide to work on a new Z last year? I wonder. I think if I were in their shoes I would keep making the current 370 with only minor tweaks until the end of the recession and crazy oil prices are in sight. At this point it doesn't hurt Nissan to make/sell less Z's. The tooling and stuff is all paid for.

I hope they look ahead and see an expanding market for sports cars.