What are you paying for a gallon of Premium?

PluckyPurcell

The US Treasury has tripled the amount of currency in circulation since 2008 in order to prop up our economy. Because of that the dollar is now valued at about 1/3 of what it was 4 years ago. Prices are just starting to catch up to this devaluation. If you think prices on anything are high now, just wait.

andre12031948

100%

I'm not good at posting charts. Can you find a chart that also shows our country's increase of spending/debt for the same time period. We have devalued our dollar & increased our spending & debt more in the last 3 years than in the last 50 years. If these things continue, & we don't drill, & don't stop the export of gasoline, then look for $10 after the next 3 years.
I would suggest backyard ALGAE farming

Spikuh

Deficit spending does not really have much to do with dollar vaulation (purchasing power, not exchange rate), but here are some numbers. It also has nothing to do with gas prices.

US federal deficits under the least 3 years of President Bush were:

FY 2007: $161 billion
FY 2008: $459 billion
FY 2009: $1,413 billion

For the 3 years under President Obama they have been:

FY 2010: $1,293 billion
FY 2011: $1,300 billion
FY 2012: $1,327 billion

As a percentage of GDP, our current deficits under both administrations have been considerably smaller than during WWII, about 10% as compared to ~25%.

US Federal Deficit by Year - Charts Analysis

When talking about dollar valuation (PP), you are refering to the CPI, not deficit/debt. For most of the relevant economic history, our country has pursued a policy of controlling and hitting an inflation target. The reason for this is because deflation is arguably more dangerous than inflation. A simple illustration is thinking which is more dangerous, having a shrinking money supply with a growing population (deflation) or a money supply that is growing at a slightly faster rate than population growth (inflation)? I should stress that this is a massively oversimplification of inflation/deflation. Both scenarios come with their own set of challenges to be solved.

The CPI index for 2007 through 2011 (2012 is not out for obvious reasons) is as follows:

FY 2007: 2.8%
FY 2008: 3.8%
FY 2009: -0.4%
FY 2010: 1.6%
FY 2011: 3.2%

These are the numbers that should (all other variables being constant) explain any increase to gas prices. We all know they do not. For example, 10 years ago, I could get a gallon of 93 octane Chevron for around $1.50. Today, that same gas should cost me $1.96 (~30% increase) assuming a constant 3% inflation rate. However, the actual cost is around $3.80 a gallon. That is a 253% increase. So obviously the CPI is not giving us the information we want.

Which brings us to the chart:

All the money pumping helped the economy avoid a liquidity trap and potiential deflationary scenario. That said, it depends on what our country does moving forward as to whether or not all that money is going to end causing massive inflation. However, drawing the conclusion that gas prices are going to triple in the future because of money supply is incorrect. It may be a contributing factor, but it is not THE factor we are looking for. Consider that in mid-2008, gas prices were around $4.00, then dropped back to under $2.00 by year end only to slowly climb back above $3.00 by 2010.


Gas prices top $3 a gallon - Dec. 23, 2010

Obviously, something is going on here besides money supply affects and the effects of our deficit and debt. Just what exactly, is harder to figure as we are talking about a global, finite resource that is increasingly harder to extract but at the end of the day all the factors get baked into the supply/demand curves and we get the price of gas that we have. Right or wrong, it is what it is, no single contributing factor is going to explain it all.

Are we going to see $10 gas? I have no doubt. Will it be within 3 years? Possible, but not neceassiry because of this chart or the deficit/debt. Even if we managed to shrink the money supply back to 2007 levels in a couple years, gas prices are still going to increase. They just are. We have not done the research or laid the ground work for a better solution. At the very least, we are 20 years behind on a transportation solution and 40 years behind on a power grid solution. That is going to cost us.

andre12031948

"Defecit spending does not really have much to do with dollar valuation"
"It also has nothing to do with gas prices"

Oh really, I'm a H.S. dropout but I know that deficit spending & debt is the start button for printing money & devaluation. The more money in serculation the smaller % wise is the debt. More money = less value = less buying power = higher gasoline prices.
That is the reason gold went up on par with gasoline! The U.S. dollar DIDN'T! or you can say, it doesn't take more gold to buy gasoline today than years ago.

As far as your inflation numbers, they don't mean a thing! When gasoline/heating oil/all energy/corn/fertilizer/everything made out of oil/eggs/milk/meat/chicken ALL going 30% to almost 100%(gasoline) up & your favorite MC Donnald meal goes from $4.99 to $6.99 you can't take those inflation figures without laughing.

Didn't read all your stuff, but to comment about your charts. They are correct. Correct doesn't mean they are good or complete.

No charts, but I know that since the beginning of U.S. until the beginning of Obama's Adm. we owed/in hack/paid interest on apx. 10 trillion dollars, in only 3 years somehow we managed to increase that to 15+ trillion. IS THAT CORRECT? IS THAT GOOD? I don't think so. We don't have to tax the poor, WE JUST MAKE THEM PAY MORE DOLLARS FOR THE THINGS THEY NEED!!!

andre12031948

Just read more of your post the part about something going on(high gas prices in U.S.) How about an effort to raise fossil fuels to such a high price that green energy(which I'm not against) becomes affordable/making sense. For that to work, AT THIS TIME (future might make green energy more affordable) oil has to be $200+ gasoline $20+ Good luck to us.
That is called "an agenda"

andre12031948

Just read the whole thing. You did a GREAT job, & made much sense.
I didn't mean for that to sound like I'm angry with you.
I should complete my readings & give more thought
Sorry
Thanks for the info...