Quote:
Originally Posted by filip00
I mean, you do understand that regardless of the technology we have, the weather still can't be accurately predicted, because the probabilities these models deal with are just such, that basically anything goes. It's not even anyone's fault.
Think of it as trying to accurately predict what will be the layout of 50 balls colored in 10 colors, after the balls are dropped from the 5th floor, over several stairsets, ending in a funnel that draws them in the cup. You can predict probabilities, sure...but can you tell WHICH ONE will actually happen?
My question for you is more like - would you be happier if we had no weather forecast at all? Because these guys are doing the best they can. And yeah, it sucks....but that's the best we can do. Weather can't be better predicted.
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If weather forecast was just limited to "We will get rain today" and if it doesn't, that's one thing.
But if you're telling the general public to evacuate one area and go to another due to a massive natural disaster, and that natural disaster goes to where people are told it's supposed to be safe, and results in a catastrophic loss of life/property, yeah not so good.
We can successfully send people to the moon and rovers to Mars, which BTW has tons of unknown variables and is thousands upon thousands of miles away, but we can't narrow down where winds/rain will go over a course of a few hundred miles?
Meteorologists go to school for this. There are known variables to factor in.