Haven't you noticed that the weather man always says its some percentage chance of rain, 10%, 50%,90% whatever. My favourite is the 50% which really means they have no clue. But as long as they give a chance of some percentage they get to claim that their forcast is accurate. It rains they say look we predicted it would rain, It dosen't rain they say look we said it wasn't a 100% chance to rain so we are acurate in our prediction.
Best way to predict the weather, stick your head outside. If it gets wet it's either raining or you left the sprikler runing.
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