Ideally, at or less than invoice -- remind them of the 3% holdback. Also, I'd wait until October when they are ready to get them off the lot. It also helps to have the Black Book to show depreciation rates each year and to demonstrate that MSRP is a sucker price that doesn't reflect the actual value of the car.
As the end of the MY year approaches you can pretty much tell them either they work out a deal with you or they can have it take up space on the lot.
Also demand to make them explain the various dealer fees they will try and tack on -- it's all pure profit for what amounts to very little work on their end -- they didn't build the car or even drive it off the truck to park it in the lot. They do maybe 15 minutes of paperwork so don't be fooled into thinking you owe them squat -- trust me, you will not be able to strike a deal where they don't make money. Just no need to leave them "high fiving" after you sign the papers.
If they won't budge, walk out. They will almost definitely call you within 24 hrs with a new offer. If they don't, **** em. Try another dealer.
Get financing up front from your own bank or credit union. Don't tell them how much you are financed for. You hold all the cards. All they have is car losing value every second it sits unsold.
This is hardball; Prepare to play it. Good luck.
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